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8

Ballysax Lil' Mick

8yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 42

Bellewstown · Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap (0-60) · 5f 3y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner in higher grade at Tipperary last summer. Arrives in reasonable heart, only beaten 3½ lengths in a more competitive event at Navan latest. Weighted to go close off 1 lb lower.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA45 @ Tipperary 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 119 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 45 par8/0845OR 45BHA55 @ Naas 24/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 55 · 5f Gd 138 · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 55 parBHA52 @ Dundalk 14/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 52 · 5f Std 134 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 52 par14/1052OR 52BHA55 @ Dundalk 31/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 55 · 5f Std 137 · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 55 · 5f Std 139 · below its mark23/01/2026 · OR 55 par23/0155OR 55BHA51 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 51 · 5f Goo 121 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 51 parBHA51 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 21 · OR 51 · 5f Gd 133 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 51 par24/0651OR 51BHA48 @ Curragh 16/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 48 · 5f Goo 119 · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 48 parBHA43 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 43 · 5f Gd 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 43 par5/0943OR 43projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA435th5th0
2026-08-16CurraghBHA485th5th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA5113th13th0
2026-06-07NavanBHA516th6th0
2026-01-23DundalkBHA5514th14th0
2025-10-31DundalkBHA556th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0831/1024/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength72%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/08/20251st28/10%100%+1.00
24/08/20255th11/142%80%+0.38
14/10/20252nd11/142%92%+0.50
31/10/20256th11/271%62%-0.10
23/01/202614th15/261%0%-0.61
07/06/20266th40/10%75%+0.75
24/06/202613th12/137%40%+0.03
16/08/20265th9/153%60%+0.07
05/09/20265th12/137%76%+0.40