2
El Fontenaro
4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 57
Bellewstown · Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap (0-60) · 5f 3y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Cork | BHA57 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Cork | BHA53 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Limerick | BHA48 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA45 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Fairyhouse | BHA49 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA49 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 45% | -0.12 |
| 17/10/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 77% | +0.08 |
| 28/05/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 41% | -0.11 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |