IvyArcIvyArc
9

Hastily

7yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 40

Bellewstown · Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap (0-60) · 5f 3y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had cheekpieces refitted when winning off this mark at Cork (6f) last summer. Continued below form when down the field on return to that track last time. Does at least have headgear back on here (can start slowly). Engaged 3.15 Bellewstown Wednesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 12.2 /10 (raw 9.3)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Gowran Park 02/09/2025 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 52 · 1m Goo 134 · below its mark02/09/2025 · OR 52 par2/09C9OR 52BHA50 @ Dundalk 17/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 50 · 7f Std 132 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 50 parBHA49 @ Naas 09/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 16 · OR 49 · 5f Gd 119 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 49 par9/0549OR 49BHA48 @ Gowran Park 20/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 48 · 1m Goo 130 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 48 parC8 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 2m50y Goo 15930/05C8C9 @ Gowran Park 12/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 43 · 1m Yie 125 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 43 parBHA41 @ Cork 24/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 41 · 6f GF 123 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 41 par24/0741OR 41BHA40 @ Clonmel 16/09/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 40 · 1m1f168y Yie 122 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Cork 29/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 40 · 6f Sft 124 · beat its mark29/09/2026 · OR 40 par29/0940OR 40projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-29CorkBHA409th9th0
2026-09-16ClonmelBHA4013th13th0
2026-07-24CorkBHA419th9th0
2026-06-12Gowran Park?13th13th0
2026-05-30Tramore?14th14th0
2026-05-20Gowran ParkBHA4815th15th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0920/0524/0729/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength38%

Delivery trend +6.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/09/202515th25/10%7%+0.07
17/10/20259th9/153%11%-0.42
09/05/202616th33/10%0%0.00
20/05/202615th66/10%7%+0.07
30/05/202614th300/10%7%+0.07
12/06/202613th125/10%8%+0.08
24/07/20269th11/142%56%+0.13
16/09/202613th33/10%8%+0.08
29/09/20269th25/10%56%+0.56