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5

One Cool Bear

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 52

Bellewstown · Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap (0-60) · 5f 3y

#8

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden. Only beaten 3¾ lengths at Navan (5f) earlier this month. Dropped 3 lb on the back of a similar effort at Fairyhouse last time and sports a change of headgear back down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA55
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 64 · 6f Std 132 · below its mark12/11/2025 · OR 64 par12/1164OR 64BHA62 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 62 · 7f Std 130 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 62 parBHA66 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 66 · 6f Std 138 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 66 par1/0466OR 66BHA65 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 65 · 5f205y Gd 123 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 65 parBHA64 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 64 · 7f111y Gd 132 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 64 par11/0564OR 64BHA63 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 63 · 7f Gd 131 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 63 parBHA60 @ Fairyhouse 12/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 60 par12/0660OR 60BHA55 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 18 · OR 55 · 5f Gd 137 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 55 parBHA55 @ Fairyhouse 21/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 55 · 6f Goo 123 · beat its mark21/09/2026 · OR 55 par21/0955OR 55projClass-projected finish: 5th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21FairyhouseBHA558th8th0
2026-09-05NavanBHA558th8th0
2026-06-12FairyhouseBHA6014th14th0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA6313th13th0
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA647th7th0
2026-04-27NaasBHA654th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1127/0412/0621/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength42%

Delivery trend +4.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/202511th7/163%23%-0.40
27/02/20262nd14/126%92%+0.65
01/04/20264th10/382%75%-0.07
27/04/20264th18/15%73%+0.67
11/05/20267th8/158%50%-0.08
28/05/202613th12/137%0%-0.37
12/06/202614th20/10%7%+0.07
05/09/20268th66/10%59%+0.59
21/09/20268th28/10%56%+0.56