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10

Star Allure

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 40

Bellewstown · Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap (0-60) · 5f 3y

#3

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden whose best effort came when third in a C&D maiden (soft) this time last year. Yet to fire this season, finishing a never-dangerous fifth of 9 in 6f handicap at Laytown earlier this month. Could outrun her odds returning to this track, though. Engaged 3.50 here Wednesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.2)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 58 · 5f Sft 129 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 58 par22/10C8OR 58BHA54 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f Std 136 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 54 parC8 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 50 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 50 par10/12C8OR 50BHA52 @ Dundalk 13/01/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 52 · 6f Std 136 · beat its mark13/01/2026 · OR 52 parC8 @ Dundalk 27/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 50 · 6f Std 142 · below its mark27/02/2026 · OR 50 par27/02C8OR 50BHA50 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 50 · 6f61y Sft 132 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 50 parBHA45 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 45 par3/0845OR 45BHA40 @ Laytown 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 40 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 40 parC8 @ Bellewstown 30/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 37 · 5f3y Sft 130 · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 37 par30/09C8OR 37projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30Bellewstown?5th5th0
2026-09-10LaytownBHA405th5th0
2026-08-03NaasBHA4510th10th0
2026-05-03SligoBHA5010th10th0
2026-02-27Dundalk?8th8th0
2026-01-13DundalkBHA5211th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1013/013/0830/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength63%

Delivery trend +0.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20257th25/10%25%+0.25
28/11/20257th80/10%25%+0.25
10/12/20253rd66/10%71%+0.71
13/01/202611th40/10%23%+0.23
27/02/20268th200/10%0%0.00
03/05/202610th28/10%31%+0.31
03/08/202610th66/10%36%+0.36
10/09/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
30/09/20265th28/10%33%+0.33