IvyArcIvyArc
3

Steel Magnolia

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 55

Bellewstown · Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap (0-60) · 5f 3y

#1

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

89%

Place Prob

70%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in a heavy-ground handicap over C&D this time last year. Seen to best effect when doubling her tally at Naas in August (in-frame horses have franked the form) and still in good heart when 2¾-length third in big-field Navan handicap latest. Expected to go well again for in-form yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA48 @ Dundalk 12/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 48 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark12/12/2025 · OR 48 par12/1248OR 48BHA48 @ Dundalk 17/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 48 · 5f Std 130 · beat its mark17/12/2025 · OR 48 parBHA46 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 46 · 5f3y Sft 128 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 46 par11/0446OR 46BHA46 @ Cork 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 46 · 5f Sft 128 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 46 parBHA43 @ Naas 24/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 21 · OR 43 · 5f Gd 125 · beat its mark24/06/2026 · OR 43 par24/0643OR 43BHA43 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 43 · 5f3y Gd 125 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 43 parBHA43 @ Naas 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 43 · 5f Goo 125 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 43 par3/0843OR 43BHA45 @ Naas 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 45 · 5f Goo 127 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 45 parBHA55 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 18 · OR 55 · 5f Gd 138 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 55 par5/0955OR 55projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05NavanBHA553rd3rd0
2026-08-23NaasBHA451st1st0
2026-08-03NaasBHA432nd2nd0
2026-07-03BellewstownBHA437th7th0
2026-06-24NaasBHA434th4th0
2026-05-19CorkBHA463rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1219/053/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/12/20256th80/10%55%+0.55
17/12/20254th15/261%73%+0.12
11/04/20264th17/255%79%+0.23
19/05/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
24/06/20264th15/261%85%+0.24
03/07/20267th4/179%50%-0.29
03/08/20262nd5/174%93%+0.19
23/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/09/20263rd5/174%88%+0.15