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4

Dream Legend

3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 66

Bellewstown · Kilsaran Race · 1m 4f 77y

#5

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked on the up when bagging a pair of course handicaps this season, scoring emphatically on latter occasion in July. Not at his best on back of 13 lb weights hike when tenth of 15 at Navan (1m, good) just over 4 weeks ago. Hood on and faces a stiff task. Engaged 3.15 here Wednesday.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class: BHA48
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 10/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR - · 7f Std 13210/10C8BHA52 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 52 · 7f Std 131 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 52 parBHA52 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 52 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 52 par28/1152OR 52BHA49 @ Dundalk 01/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR 49 · 6f Std 121 · beat its mark01/04/2026 · OR 49 parBHA48 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 48 · 7f205y Sft 119 · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 48 par11/0448OR 48BHA57 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 57 · 7f Sft 136 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 57 parBHA56 @ Bellewstown 02/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 56 · 7f211y Gd 136 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 56 par2/0756OR 56BHA69 @ Navan 02/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 69 · 1m20y Goo 124 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 69 parBHA66 @ Bellewstown 30/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 66 · 7f205y Sft 133 · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 66 par30/0966OR 66projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30BellewstownBHA665th5th0
2026-09-02NavanBHA6910th10th0
2026-07-02BellewstownBHA561st1st0
2026-04-22Gowran ParkBHA573rd3rd0
2026-04-11BellewstownBHA481st1st0
2026-04-01DundalkBHA4910th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/101/042/0730/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/202514th250/10%0%0.00
19/11/202514th80/10%0%0.00
28/11/20256th80/10%62%+0.62
01/04/202610th18/15%25%+0.20
11/04/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
22/04/20263rd13/266%82%+0.16
02/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
02/09/202610th12/137%36%-0.01
30/09/20265th7/282%69%-0.12