1
Narlita
7yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 81
Bellewstown · Kilsaran Race · 1m 4f 77y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Down Royal | BHA83 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-21 | Listowel | BHA84 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Galway | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | BHA81 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | BHA82 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | BHA83 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.33 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 44% | -0.24 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 31/07/2026 | 17th | 33/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 21/09/2026 | 13th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 28/09/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |