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Lily Parr

4yo Filly · 10-2 · OR 60

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 4f 77y

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hit the frame in pair of 1½m maidens last autumn and ran well in Galway handicap in July. Unable to get competitive at Roscommon next time and looked unsuited by the drop in trip at Punchestown last month. Eases further in the weights and return to 1½m promises to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 8.4)

Highest class: BHA62
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA72 @ Fairyhouse 29/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 72 · 1m2f Yie 130 · below its mark29/05/2025 · OR 72 par29/0572OR 72BHA68 @ Punchestown 16/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 68 · 1m1f58y Goo 126 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 68 parBHA67 @ Killarney 06/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 67 · 1m3f50y Sft 137 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 67 par6/1067OR 67C8 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 23 · OR 65 · 1m4f Hvy 129 · below its mark02/11/2025 · OR 65 parC8 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 68 · 1m4f Std 129 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 68 par19/11C8OR 68BHA67 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m4f17y Yie 127 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 67 parBHA66 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 66 · 1m4f Yie 136 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 66 par30/0766OR 66BHA65 @ Roscommon 18/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 65 · 1m4f48y Goo 135 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 65 parBHA62 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m1f30y Goo 123 · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 62 par15/0962OR 62projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA627th7th0
2026-08-18RoscommonBHA6510th10th0
2026-07-30GalwayBHA666th6th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA6710th10th0
2025-11-19Dundalk?4th4th0
2025-11-02Curragh?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/052/1130/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength98%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20259th28/10%33%+0.33
16/09/20258th33/10%46%+0.46
06/10/20255th5/174%33%-0.40
02/11/20254th16/116%86%+0.71
19/11/20254th10/382%67%-0.16
18/05/202610th22/10%10%+0.10
30/07/20266th50/10%69%+0.69
18/08/202610th15/261%40%-0.21
15/09/20267th18/15%54%+0.49