6
Sir Trancealot
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 55
Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) (Div 1) · 1m 4f 77y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.4)
Highest class: BHA58
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | BHA58 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Killarney | BHA59 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | BHA59 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA58 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Dundalk | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/04/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.08 |
| 13/07/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 31/08/2026 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |