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13

Autocrat

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 40

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 4f 77y

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

6-time winner at Dundalk who produced his best effort on turf of the season when third of 14 at Down Royal (11f) 3 days ago. Has a much lower mark on turf to work from, so he merits consideration now switched to a visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: BHA40
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 62 · 1m2f150y Std 142 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 62 par23/01C8OR 62BHA71 @ Dundalk 20/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 71 · 1m2f150y Std 141 · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 71 parBHA60 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m5f190y Sft 142 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 60 par3/0560OR 60BHA56 @ Leopardstown 15/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR 56 · 1m4f180y Gd 138 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 56 parBHA52 @ Navan 11/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m2f40y Goo 134 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 52 par11/0752OR 52BHA48 @ Ballinrobe 20/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m4f179y Goo 130 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 48 parBHA43 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 43 · 1m4f194y Goo 125 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 43 par4/0943OR 43BHA40 @ Punchestown 15/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 40 · 1m1f30y Goo 122 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 40 parBHA40 @ Down Royal 28/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 40 · 1m3f10y Goo 122 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 40 par28/0940OR 40projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Down RoyalBHA403rd3rd0
2026-09-15PunchestownBHA406th6th0
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA438th8th0
2026-07-20BallinrobeBHA489th9th0
2026-07-11NavanBHA5210th10th0
2026-05-15LeopardstownBHA5616th16th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0115/054/0928/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength94%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
20/03/20267th13/266%50%-0.16
03/05/202610th9/276%31%-0.46
15/05/202616th12/137%17%-0.20
11/07/202610th12/137%18%-0.19
20/07/20269th40/10%20%+0.20
04/09/20268th14/126%36%+0.10
15/09/20266th10/147%58%+0.11
28/09/20263rd15/261%85%+0.24