IvyArcIvyArc
2

Grey Fable

6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 59

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 4f 77y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

91%

Place Prob

65%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Capitalised on a reduced mark at Dundalk in May and has run at least as well when making the frame last 2 starts, second of 5 at Beverley on latest outing. Major player back down in grade.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength27%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA62 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m2f150y Std 132 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 62 par21/1162OR 62BHA59 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m4f Std 142 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 59 · 1m7f Goo 129 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 59 par5/055OR 59BHA59 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 59 · 1m4f17y Yie 141 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 59 parBHA56 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 56 · 1m4f Std 138 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 56 par26/0556OR 56BHA59 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m4f207y Sft 141 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m4f65y Gd 141 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 par11/0759OR 595 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m4f63y Goo 134 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 59 · 1m4f23y Goo 133 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 59 par13/085OR 59projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Beverley52nd2nd0
2026-07-25Chester54th4th0
2026-07-11LimerickBHA595th5th0
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA599th9th0
2026-05-26DundalkBHA561st1st0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA5914th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1118/0511/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength71%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20256th18/15%62%+0.56
10/04/20266th12/137%55%+0.18
05/05/20264th5/493%0%-0.93
18/05/202614th14/126%13%-0.13
26/05/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
20/06/20269th9/153%38%-0.14
11/07/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
25/07/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
13/08/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09