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5

You Make Me Smile

8yo Mare · 9-11 · OR 55

Bellewstown · BOYLE Sports Handicap (0-60) (Div 2) · 1m 4f 77y

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner over hurdles in October last year and followed up on the Flat at Galway. Placed twice on the level during the spring but form has been mixed of late, running one of lesser races in handicap hurdle at Ballinrobe (2¾m) 20 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Navan 17/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 90 · 2m50y Sft 148 · beat its mark17/11/2025 · OR 90 par17/111OR 90BHA57 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m6f Hvy 127 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 57 parBHA56 @ Gowran Park 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 56 · 1m5f160y Sft 138 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 56 par22/0456OR 56BHA57 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 57 · 1m5f190y Sft 139 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 57 parBHA90 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 90 · 2m13y Goo 140 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 90 par26/0590OR 90BHA95 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 95 · 2m2f185y Gd 142 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 95 parBHA57 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 57 · 2m Goo 141 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 57 par7/0757OR 57BHA98 @ Sligo 06/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 98 · 2m4f168y Gd 151 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 98 parBHA98 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 98 · 2m5f208y Goo 146 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 98 par11/0998OR 98projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA987th7th0
2026-08-06SligoBHA983rd3rd0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA578th8th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA952nd2nd0
2026-05-26BallinrobeBHA903rd3rd0
2026-05-03SligoBHA572nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/113/057/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/11/20255th150/10%33%+0.33
30/03/20267th12/137%45%+0.09
22/04/20263rd9/153%83%+0.31
03/05/20262nd10/382%92%+0.10
26/05/20263rd11/142%75%+0.33
14/06/20262nd11/271%91%+0.20
07/07/20268th5/174%36%-0.37
06/08/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02
11/09/20267th7/163%40%-0.23