10
Celtic Dawn
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
69%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 5-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -19.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 14/05/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 23/07/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |