5
L'eclair
3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 77
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 31/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 22/02/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/11 | 99% | 50% | -0.49 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |