2
Mascara
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 79
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-01-02 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 8-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 16/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 13/02/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |