4
Next On Stage
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 88
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 04/01/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 06/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |