Pleasant Embrace
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 89
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-05-31 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2024-09-07 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2024 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 02/06/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 09/08/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 07/02/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 15/03/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 31/05/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 15/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |