8
The Big Calhouna
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 85
Belmont Park · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 23/07/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 18/10/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 07/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |