Flowerhead

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 99

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Winter Memories Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C1.3

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Saratoga	?	8th	8th	+0	2.2
2026-06-28	Woodbine	?	3rd	8th	−4	2.3
2026-06-07	Saratoga	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-02	Goodwood	1	5th	5th	−0	4.8
2026-04-05	Bath	1	8th	8th	−0	1.8
2025-10-11	York	1	7th	7th	−0	2.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength33%

Delivery trend +6.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/07/2025	5th	11/2	71%	56%	-0.15
15/08/2025	3rd	1/1	95%	80%	-0.15
12/09/2025	8th	6/1	68%	30%	-0.38
11/10/2025	7th	8/1	58%	50%	-0.08
05/04/2026	8th	10/1	47%	46%	-0.01
02/05/2026	5th	18/1	5%	50%	+0.45
07/06/2026	4th	25/1	0%	50%	+0.50
28/06/2026	3rd	6/1	68%	78%	+0.09
29/08/2026	8th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00