4
Hand Over Heart
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 95
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Winter Memories Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 1.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +5.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 18/06/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 08/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |