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6

Lovely Grey

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 94

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Winter Memories Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f Slo 12028/07C6C6 @ Colonial Downs 14/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 60 · 1m110y Fm 119 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 60 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f110y 122 · beat its mark07/09/2025 · OR 68 par7/09C6OR 68C5 @ Laurel Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 75 parC6 @ Turfway Park 23/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m 122 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 78 par23/01C6OR 78C5 @ Turfway Park 21/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 86 parBHA94 @ Turfway Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 94 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 94 par21/0394OR 94C0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 95 · 1m1f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 95 parC5 @ Saratoga 03/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 120 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 94 par3/07C5OR 94projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-03Saratoga?8th13th−4
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?12th12th+0
2026-03-21Turfway ParkBHA942nd13th−9
2026-02-21Turfway Park?2nd7th−4
2026-01-23Turfway Park?3rd9th−5
2025-09-27Laurel Park?6th11th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0727/0921/033/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength56%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20254th5/174%40%-0.34
14/08/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
07/09/20256th9/276%50%-0.26
27/09/20256th15/261%29%-0.32
23/01/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
21/02/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
21/03/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
02/05/202612th20/10%8%+0.08
03/07/20268th13/266%22%-0.44