7
Shelzawa
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 103
Belmont Park · Race 4 - Winter Memories Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 1.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Pornichet | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 07/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |