IvyArcIvyArc
8

Sister Troienne

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 101

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Winter Memories Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength22%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 1.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 23/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f 11923/08C6C6 @ Churchill Downs 20/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 119 · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 84 parC5 @ Keeneland 22/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 1m110y Gd 122 · beat its mark22/10/2025 · OR 93 par22/10C5OR 93C5 @ Gulfstream 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 98 · 7f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 98 parC5 @ Gulfstream 03/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 101 · 1m Fm 120 · beat its mark03/01/2026 · OR 101 par3/01C5OR 101BHA97 @ Gulfstream 31/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark31/01/2026 · OR 97 parC1 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 97 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 97 par28/02C1OR 97C0 @ Keeneland 04/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 104 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 104 par4/04C?OR 104projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-04Keeneland?5th5th+0
2026-02-28Gulfstream?2nd2nd0
2026-01-31GulfstreamBHA971st12th−9
2026-01-03Gulfstream?1st6th−4
2025-11-27Gulfstream?1st6th−4
2025-10-22Keeneland?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0827/1128/024/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -8.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/08/20253rd12/137%82%+0.45
20/09/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
22/10/20251st6/594%100%+0.06
27/11/20251st5/696%100%+0.04
03/01/20261st2/799%100%+0.02
31/01/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
28/02/20262nd1/195%86%-0.09
04/04/20265th11/893%56%-0.37