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10

Ultimate Love

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 4 - Winter Memories Stakes - Grade 3 · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

8%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 24/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 1m Fm 11924/07C6C6 @ Laurel Park 05/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 122 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Laurel Park 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fm 122 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 87 par27/09C5OR 87C0 @ Del Mar 31/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 88 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/10/2025 · OR 88 parC5 @ Laurel Park 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 100 par15/05C5OR 100C0 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 101 · 1m1f Fm 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 101 parC1 @ Saratoga 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 98 par1/08C1OR 98C0 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 100 par29/08C?OR 100projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?2nd2nd+0
2026-08-01Saratoga?5th5th0
2026-07-04Saratoga?9th9th+0
2026-05-15Laurel Park?2nd7th−4
2025-10-31Del Mar?5th5th+0
2025-09-27Laurel Park?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0731/101/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
05/09/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
27/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
31/10/20255th4/179%64%-0.15
15/05/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08
04/07/20269th25/10%11%+0.11
01/08/20265th20/10%43%+0.43
29/08/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70