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Alogon
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 104
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-06-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-08-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/05/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 78% | +0.30 |
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |