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5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 100

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲4

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.8

Today:

Class gap: -4.2

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Laurel Park	?	5th	10th	−4	1.0
2026-08-01	Colonial Downs	?	5th	10th	−4	1.0
2026-06-06	Delaware Park	?	3rd	8th	−4	1.7
2026-05-16	Laurel Park	?	3rd	8th	−4	2.3
2025-11-13	Aqueduct	?	7th	13th	−5	1.0
2025-10-16	Delaware Park	?	2nd	7th	−4	2.7

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength29%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
11/07/2025	2nd	10/3	82%	80%	-0.02
20/08/2025	3rd	6/4	92%	60%	-0.32
28/09/2025	5th	7/2	82%	43%	-0.39
16/10/2025	2nd	10/3	82%	89%	+0.06
13/11/2025	7th	20/1	0%	25%	+0.25
16/05/2026	3rd	40/1	0%	78%	+0.78
06/06/2026	3rd	2/1	89%	78%	-0.12
01/08/2026	5th	33/1	0%	50%	+0.50
12/09/2026	5th	8/1	58%	33%	-0.25