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Chasing Liberty

4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 97

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fair Grounds 01/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 97 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark01/03/2025 · OR 97 par1/03C5OR 97C1 @ Keeneland 07/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 104 · 1m110y Gd 118 · beat its mark07/04/2025 · OR 104 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m Slo 12314/05C?C5 @ Ellis Park 04/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark04/07/2025 · OR 101 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 105 · 6f110y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 105 par6/09C?OR 105C5 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 102 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 102 parC5 @ Laurel Park 16/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 106 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 106 par16/05C5OR 106C5 @ Saratoga 05/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 105 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 103 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 103 par30/08C6OR 103projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Kentucky Downs?10th16th−5
2026-07-05Saratoga?4th9th−4
2026-05-16Laurel Park?1st6th−4
2026-04-18Laurel Park?2nd7th−4
2025-09-06Kentucky Downs?5th5th+0
2025-07-04Ellis Park?3rd8th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/034/0716/0530/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength22%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/03/20253rd7/491%60%-0.31
07/04/20255th10/147%64%+0.16
14/05/20252nd4/797%67%-0.30
04/07/20253rd5/287%67%-0.20
06/09/20255th12/137%64%+0.27
18/04/20262nd8/158%92%+0.34
16/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
05/07/20264th10/147%57%+0.10
30/08/202610th15/261%10%-0.51