10
Jean Valjean
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 105
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: -4.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 11th | −5 |
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2024 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 22% | -0.54 |
| 09/11/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 56% | -0.38 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |