Spiced Up

4yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 95

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲5

Strength9%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.1

Today:

Class gap: -4.5

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Saratoga	?	1st	7th	−5	3.1
2026-06-05	Saratoga	?	2nd	8th	−5	2.1
2026-05-02	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	10th	−4	1.0
2026-04-03	Keeneland	?	2nd	7th	−4	2.7
2026-01-04	Gulfstream	?	9th	15th	−5	1.0
2025-10-19	Belmont At The Big A	?	3rd	8th	−4	2.3

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength46%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/06/2025	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
10/08/2025	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29
06/09/2025	12th	9/4	88%	0%	-0.88
19/10/2025	3rd	6/4	92%	75%	-0.17
04/01/2026	9th	9/4	88%	0%	-0.88
03/04/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	86%	+0.04
02/05/2026	5th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
05/06/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	91%	+0.54
04/09/2026	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34