Spirited Sol

8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▲4

Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.8

Today:

Class gap: -4.2

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Colonial Downs	?	1st	6th	−4	4.3
2026-08-15	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-28	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	7th	−5	3.1
2026-07-18	Monmouth Park	?	3rd	8th	−4	2.3
2026-07-03	Presque Isle Downs	?	1st	6th	−4	4.3
2026-06-18	Penn National	?	2nd	7th	−4	2.7

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength70%

Delivery trend +5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/09/2025	2nd	10/1	47%	80%	+0.33
02/10/2025	2nd	8/1	58%	75%	+0.17
23/10/2025	3rd	15/2	61%	33%	-0.27
18/06/2026	2nd	6/1	68%	67%	-0.02
03/07/2026	1st	25/1	0%	100%	+1.00
18/07/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	33%	-0.40
28/07/2026	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
15/08/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	67%	+0.01
07/09/2026	1st	20/1	0%	100%	+1.00