7
Twenty Six Black
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 108
Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
73%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength29%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-10-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-09-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength86%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 03/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 31/08/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/6 | 96% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 06/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 57% | -0.36 |