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6

Waralo

7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 5 - Belmont Turf Sprint Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲4
Strength7%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: -3.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Aqueduct 27/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 121 · below its mark27/04/2025 · OR 92 par27/04C5OR 92C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 87 · 6f Fm 123 · beat its mark26/05/2025 · OR 87 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 22/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 87 · 6f Fm 125 · beat its mark22/06/2025 · OR 87 par22/06C6OR 87C5 @ Saratoga 10/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 93 · 5f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark10/08/2025 · OR 93 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 99 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 99 par4/10C6OR 99C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 100 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 100 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 99 · 6f Fm 120 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 99 par2/05C5OR 99C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 95 · 6f 126 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 95 parC0 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 99 · 5f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 99 par9/08C?OR 99projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Saratoga?3rd3rd+0
2026-06-27Belmont At The Big A?1st6th−4
2026-05-02Belmont At The Big A?1st6th−4
2025-10-25Belmont At The Big A?2nd7th−4
2025-10-04Belmont At The Big A?2nd8th−5
2025-08-10Saratoga?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0410/082/059/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/04/20254th7/163%50%-0.13
26/05/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
22/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
10/08/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
04/10/20252nd11/486%86%+0.00
25/10/20252nd7/163%83%+0.20
02/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
27/06/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
09/08/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35