1
Niermes De Guez
3yo Gelding · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix De Fervaques - Attele · 1m 5f 120y
#7
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Enghien | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Meslay Du Maine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 14-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 55% | -0.14 |