4
Ketchup
6yo Gelding · 9-4
Cabourg · Prix Des Ophrys - Monte · 1m 5f 147y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +5.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Vire | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Vincennes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Cabourg | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Cabourg | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Vire | ? | 0 | ||
| 2024-12-26 | Argentan | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -17.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 44% | -0.19 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |