15
Lino Guillerville
5yo Gelding · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix Des Perdrix - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vire | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Meslay Du Maine | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Amiens | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Vincennes | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vincennes | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 09/12/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 04/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 82% | -0.12 |
| 09/04/2026 | 11th | 9/2 | 76% | 41% | -0.35 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 85% | -0.08 |