3
Hey Nigh Teen
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 48
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |