7
Malibu Miss
3yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 54
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |