6
Maybeitwas Memphis
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 49
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |