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5

Reece's Drama

5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 42

Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Delaware Park 30/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 46 · 5f110y 122 · beat its mark30/07/2025 · OR 46 par30/07C9OR 46C9 @ Charles Town 09/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 46 · 7f 124 · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 46 parC9 @ Charles Town 14/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 38 · 6f110y 126 · beat its mark14/03/2026 · OR 38 par14/03C9OR 38C9 @ Delaware Park 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 41 · 6f 124 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 41 parC9 @ Delaware Park 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 46 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 46 par17/06C9OR 46C8 @ Delaware Park 08/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 45 · 6f 125 · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 45 parC8 @ Charles Town 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 44 · 6f110y Fas 124 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 44 par1/08C8OR 44C8 @ Delaware Park 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 47 · 1m70y Slo 122 · below its mark22/08/2026 · OR 47 parC8 @ Delaware Park 05/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 45 · 1m 122 · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 45 par5/09C8OR 45projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-08-22Delaware Park?4th4th0
2026-08-01Charles Town?6th6th0
2026-07-08Delaware Park?9th9th0
2026-06-17Delaware Park?1st2nd−1
2026-05-29Delaware Park?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0729/051/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength68%

Delivery trend +4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20253rd15/261%67%+0.06
09/08/20255th15/890%33%-0.57
14/03/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
29/05/20262nd20/10%89%+0.89
17/06/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
08/07/20269th20/10%11%+0.11
01/08/20266th14/126%17%-0.10
22/08/20264th20/10%25%+0.25
05/09/20264th25/10%25%+0.25