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Spotlight Girl

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 48

Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gulfstream 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 49 · 5f Fas 121 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 49 par13/03C8OR 49C8 @ Gulfstream 11/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 53 · 5f110y Fas 122 · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 53 parC8 @ Gulfstream 02/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 48 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 48 par2/05C8OR 48C8 @ Gulfstream 07/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 56 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 56 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 22/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 44 · 5f110y 118 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 44 par22/07C8OR 44C8 @ Colonial Downs 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 5f110y Fm 118 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 48 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 23/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 54 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 54 par23/08C8OR 54C8 @ Colonial Downs 04/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 65 · 5f110y 118 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 65 parC5 @ Charles Town 18/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 59 · 4f110y Slo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 59 par18/09C5OR 59projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Charles Town?7th4th+3
2026-09-04Colonial Downs?5th5th0
2026-08-23Colonial Downs?10th10th0
2026-07-31Colonial Downs?4th4th0
2026-07-22Colonial Downs?8th8th0
2026-06-07Gulfstream?10th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/037/0623/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength45%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20262nd12/137%67%+0.30
11/04/202611th50/10%0%0.00
02/05/20269th50/10%11%+0.11
07/06/202610th25/10%0%0.00
22/07/20268th33/10%13%+0.13
31/07/20264th7/163%63%-0.01
23/08/202610th25/10%10%+0.10
04/09/20265th33/10%20%+0.20
18/09/20267th16/116%25%+0.09