Bull Rider
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 59
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |