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5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 57
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength44%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength61%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/03/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |