7
Earthwatch
4yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 102
Clonmel · Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m 166y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA72 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Kilbeggan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Curragh | BHA76 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Clonmel | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +7.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 16th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 15/10/2025 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 13% | -0.30 |
| 03/12/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 05/04/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 27/06/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 79% | +0.73 |
| 08/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 16/09/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |