10
Home By The Sea
6yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 96
Clonmel · Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m 166y
#12
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 9.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | BHA98 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | BHA98 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA98 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | ? | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Killarney | BHA100 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/02/2026 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 26/03/2026 | 12th | 250/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 250/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 16/07/2026 | 15th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 16th | 66/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 19/09/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |