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2

Nelson Muntz

7yo Gelding · 12-1 · OR 113

Clonmel · Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m 166y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a losing run but this reliable sort posted a good second in first-time blinkers (retained) on Flat at Tramore before possibly finding the run coming too soon when sixth of 14 in handicap hurdle at Kilbeggan (2½m, good) in July. Freshened up since, and he's weighted to go well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: BHA68
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 117 · 2m6f110y Yie 164 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 117 par20/11C8OR 117BHA73 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 73 · 2m Std 123 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 73 parC8 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 115 · 2m Yie 161 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 115 par26/12C8OR 115C8 @ Fairyhouse 15/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 117 · 2m4f Sft 165 · below its mark15/01/2026 · OR 117 parBHA70 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m4f Sft 130 · below its mark28/03/2026 · OR 70 par28/0370OR 70BHA116 @ Punchestown 01/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 24 · OR 116 · 2m45y Yie 162 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 116 parC0 @ Tramore 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 16629/05C?BHA68 @ Tramore 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 68 · 2m Goo 136 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 68 parBHA115 @ Kilbeggan 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 115 · 2m4f Goo 146 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 115 par10/07115OR 115projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10KilbegganBHA1156th6th0
2026-07-07TramoreBHA682nd2nd0
2026-05-29Tramore?5th5th0
2026-05-01PunchestownBHA11613th13th0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA7011th11th0
2026-01-15Fairyhouse?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/1115/0129/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/11/20253rd8/158%71%+0.14
28/11/20258th33/10%42%+0.42
26/12/20254th25/10%82%+0.82
15/01/20263rd7/163%50%-0.13
28/03/202611th22/10%23%+0.23
01/05/202613th25/10%48%+0.48
29/05/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
07/07/20262nd10/147%90%+0.43
10/07/20266th15/261%62%+0.01