8
Silly Mongoose
5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 100
Clonmel · Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m 166y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA102 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA103 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clonmel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Cork | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 03/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 04/08/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 10/04/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 14/05/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/07/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |