1
St Denis's Well
8yo Gelding · 12-2 · OR 114
Clonmel · Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m 166y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA120 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Navan | BHA112 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | BHA120 | 0 | ||
| 2025-11-30 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Navan | BHA100 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | BHA102 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/03/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 20/04/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 27% | -0.28 |
| 18/10/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 29/03/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |