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Stepdance

6yo Mare · 11-11 · OR 109

Clonmel · Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m 166y

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form in maiden hurdles at the end of 2025. Fit from the Flat (fair winner) and a potential improver in handicaps back hurdling. Worth a market check.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: BHA43
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA43 @ Limerick 12/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 43 · 1m3f70y Gd 132 · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 43 par12/0743OR 43BHA58 @ Tramore 16/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 58 · 1m4f Goo 142 · beat its mark16/08/2025 · OR 58 parC8 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f165y Yie 15920/09C8C8 @ Thurles 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f172y Goo 161C8 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m190y Yie 1591/11C8BHA62 @ Roscommon 11/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 62 · 1m4f46y Gd 132 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 62 parBHA61 @ Leopardstown 06/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 22 · OR 61 · 1m1f Goo 131 · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 61 par6/0861OR 61BHA60 @ Tramore 15/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m4f Goo 144 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 60 parBHA59 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 15th of 22 · OR 59 · 1m6f Goo 141 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 59 par27/0859OR 59projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA5915th15th0
2026-08-15TramoreBHA604th4th0
2026-08-06LeopardstownBHA6110th10th0
2026-05-29TramoreBHA1090
2026-05-11RoscommonBHA629th9th0
2025-11-01Down Royal?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0716/106/0827/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength28%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
16/08/20251st6/492%100%+0.08
20/09/20255th16/116%73%+0.58
16/10/20255th11/142%73%+0.31
01/11/20258th15/261%50%-0.11
11/05/20269th9/276%38%-0.38
06/08/202610th25/10%57%+0.57
15/08/20264th5/287%63%-0.24
27/08/202615th12/137%33%-0.04