5
Vaureal
7yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 105
Clonmel · Clonmel Handicap Hurdle · 2m 166y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C11.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA114 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | BHA114 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | BHA111 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA107 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-04 | Punchestown | BHA112 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-29 | Leopardstown | BHA113 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 26/10/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 36% | -0.41 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 29/12/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 94% | +0.23 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |